POST-CALIFORNIA RECALL ELECTION: FAIR SURVEY -- Topline

October 7, 2003 - FAIR

N = 600 Margin of error: +/- 4.0%

A. Did you vote in today's recall election, either in person or by absentee ballot?

81% YES/IN PERSON
19% YES/ABSENTEE

GENERAL QUESTIONS

1. To begin ...generally speaking, would you say that things in California are headed in the right direction, or have things in the state gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

71% OFF ON WRONG TRACK
18% RIGHT DIRECTION
10% DON'T KNOW /REFUSED

I am now going to read you a list of issues that were raised during the recall campaign. For each, please tell me if you think they are extremely important, very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or not important at all.

2. Solving the California state budget deficit.

65% EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
30% VERY IMPORTANT
4% SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT
-- ONLY A LITTLE
1% NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT
-- DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

3. Improving education in California.

50% EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
37% VERY IMPORTANT
11% SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT
-- ONLY A LITTLE IMPORTANT
2% NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT
-- DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

4. Stopping illegal immigration in California.

40% EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
26% VERY IMPORTANT
18% SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT
8% ONLY A LITTLE IMPORTANT
6% NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT
2% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

5. Improving the jobs and economic climate in California.

61% EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
32% VERY IMPORTANT
6% SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT
-- ONLY A LITTLE UNIMPORTANT
1% NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT
1% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

6. Eliminating the car tax.

35% EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
28% VERY IMPORTANT
18% SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT
9% ONLY A LITTLE IMPORTANT
8% NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT
2% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

THE RECALL

Now let's turn to the recall for a moment...

7. And how did you vote on the first question of today's recall ballot? YES to recall the Governor of California, or NO to oppose the recall?

56% YES, RECALL THE GOVERNOR
42% NO, OPPOSE THE RECALL
2% DID NOT VOTE ON THIS QUESTION
-- DON'T KNOW / REFUSED

8. And for which candidate did you vote on the second part of the recall ballot?

42% ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER
24% CRUZ BUSTAMANTE
13% TOM MCCLINTOCK
3% OTHER
9% DID NOT VOTE FOR A CANDIDATE
9% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

IMMIGRATION POLICY

Now let's change topics for a moment

9. And generally speaking, do you believe LEGAL immigration has had very a positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative impact on California?

28% VERY POSITIVE
41% SOMEWHAT POSITIVE
8% NO IMPACT
13% SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE
6% VERY NEGATIVE
4% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

10. And generally speaking, do you believe ILLEGAL immigration has had very a positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative impact on California?

4% VERY POSITIVE
20% SOMEWHAT POSITIVE
5% NO IMPACT
31% SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE
33% VERY NEGATIVE
8% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

11. And with regard to California's state budget deficit, which of the following statements best describes your views on the impact that illegal immigration has had? If you feel that illegal immigration has had no impact on the state budget deficit, please just say so.

54% Illegal immigrants use more in services than they contribute in taxes, and therefore illegal immigration has increased the size of the state budget deficit 19% Illegal immigrants pay more in taxes than they use in services, and therefore the budget deficits would have been worse without the presences of illegal immigrants 13% Illegal immigration has had no impact on the state's budget 13% Don't Know/Refused

12. Recently, Governor Davis signed a law that will allow illegal immigrants to obtain California driver's licenses. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this measure?

8% STONGLY SUPPORT
13% SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
8% NO OPINION
17% SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
51% STRONGLY OPPOSE
3% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

13. Did Gray Davis's decision to grant driver's licenses to illegal immigrants influence your vote in today's recall elections? (IF YES) Did it make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely or much less likely to support his recall?

40% NO
19% YES/MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT HIS RECALL
11% YES/SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT
20% NO EFFECT
4% YES/SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT HIS RECALL
4% YES/MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT HIS RECALL
3% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

16. Under California state law, voters have the ability to block a law passed by the legislature and signed by the governor through the referendum process. A referendum to block the law allowing illegal immigrants to obtain California driver's licenses has been proposed for the March 2004 ballot. If such a referendum were to appear, would you be very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely to support it?

45% VERY LIKELY
17% SOMEWHAT LIKELY
8% NO OPINION
11% SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY
14% MUCH LESS LIKELY
5% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

17. State law now allows illegal immigrants who reside in California to be eligible for reduced, in-state tuition rates at the University of California and other state run colleges and universities. In your opinion, should illegal immigrants be eligible for in-state tuition rates?

73% NO
18% YES
9% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

18. If a candidate for public office wanted to repeal the law that makes illegal immigrants eligible for in-state tuition rates at public colleges and universities, would you be much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for that candidate?

32% MUCH MORE LIKELY
21% SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY
19% NO OPINION
11% SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY
10% MUCH LESS LIKELY
7% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

19. Governor Davis recently signed a bill that establishes the Mexican consular identification card as a valid form of ID to be recognized by all government agencies in California. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose such a measure?

12% STONGLY SUPPORT
19% SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
17% NO OPINION
16% SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
24% STRONGLY OPPOSE
11% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

20. The State of California and many jurisdictions throughout California prohibit local police and sheriffs departments from sharing information about suspected illegal immigrants with federal immigration authorities. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose such a measure?

7% STONGLY SUPPORT
12% SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
14% NO OPINION
19% SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
44% STRONGLY OPPOSE
4% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

21. The State of California and many jurisdictions throughout California prohibit local police and sheriffs departments from detaining suspected illegal immigrants with federal immigration authorities. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose such a measure?

9% STONGLY SUPPORT
14% SOMEWHAT SUPPORT
12% NO OPINION
17% SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
42% STRONGLY OPPOSE
6% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

I am now going to read you a few pairs of statements. For each, please tell me which you agree with more?

22. 65% Illegal immigrants should not be eligible for services and benefits provided by state and local governments, except for emergency services. OR

26% All residents of California should receive the same benefits and services, regardless of their immigration status.

6% NO OPINION
4% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

I am now going to read you a few pairs of statements. For each, please tell me which you agree with more?

23. 53% I would be more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes granting government benefits and services to illegal immigrants. OR

12% I would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports granting government benefits and services to illegal immigrants. OR

20% A candidate's positions on illegal immigrants would be unlikely to affect my vote one way or the other.

8% NO OPINION
7% DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

DEMOGRAPHICS

And now just a few questions for statistical purposes only

24. What is your age?

6% 18-29
29% 30-49
38% 50-64
25% 65 AND OLDER
2% DON'T KNOW / REFUSED

25. And with which political party are you registered?

43% REPUBLICAN
40% DEMOCRAT
13% INDEPENDENT
1% GREEN
2% OTHER
2% DON'T KNOW / REFUSED

26. And regardless of what you think now, whom did you support in the 2002 election for Governor Republican Bill Simon or Democrat Gray Davis? Please be honest. If you did not vote, just say so.

47% GRAY DAVIS
37% BILL SIMON
7% OTHER
4% DID NOT VOTE
4% DON'T KNOW

27. Gender

48% MALE
52% FEMALE

FAIR 10/03

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